Advertising Effectiveness Will Never Change With Analysis Like This

In a recent article, Advertising Will Change Forever, Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff explains that while digital spending will nearly double in 5 years ad budgets won’t. The reason for this, Bernoff explains, is that “In this recession, marketers have learned that interactive marketing is more effective, and advertising less effective, per dollar spent.” While this will make bloggers, digital analysts and social media strategists feel pretty good about themselves and their job security further analysis is required.

Asking marketers about the effectiveness of individual channels is part of the problem. Channels are not executed in a vacuum. We now understand from rigorous attribution research conducted by Microsoft Atlas and others what we have always assumed to be true, that the effectiveness of individual channels is significantly affected not only by other online channels but across offline channels as well. As long as research companies like Forrester and marketers take the easy way out and evaluate the effectiveness of channels in a silo, progress towards really measuring the effectiveness of marketing will never be made.

Bernoff goes on to fuel the fire by proclaiming the oncoming death of traditional channels, “If you’re in advertising, you’d better learn to speak digital, because that’s the way the world is going.” Contrary to this statement, Forrester’s own data shows that while time spent online has been growing rapidly, time spent watching TV is actually up YOY and still captures the majority of consumers time.

My recommendation is to ignore predictions of the death of traditional channels and ignore research that evaluates the effectiveness of channels in a silo. With the proliferation of new channels, consumers continued use of traditional channels and increasing cross-channel behavior, if you’re in advertising, you’d better learn to speak and measure integrated, because that’s the way the world is really going.